Tropical cyclone multi-hazards now and in the future
We utilize environment-dependent synthetic TC track models, physical hazard models, and multivariate statistical methods to characterize the joint probability distribution of TC hazards (rainfall, storm surge, and wind), and understand how the frequency of extreme, joint and/or sequential events may change under future climate conditions. We also apply big datasets and physical models to improve our understanding of historical TC climatology and hazards.
TC joint rainfall-surge hazard projections | TC sequential landfall projections | Correlation between SLR and TC climatology change | Improved modeling of TC winds | North Atlantic TC size and storm surge reconstructions | Storm surge reconstructions from paleoclimate proxy data | Rapid intensification of future hurricanes
Joint probability methods for efficient compound flood hazard assessment
When TC rainfall and storm surges co-occur in coastal regions, they often interact to exacerbate overall flooding depth and extent, leading to a compound flood. Traditional flood risk models were limited in their ability to simulate multiple co-occurring flood mechanisms. We aim to develop efficient compound flood modeling frameworks by linking ocean, coastal, and inland models and developing joint probability methods for optimally sampling flood hazard scenarios. We apply our methods to understand the evolution of compound flooding under a variety of climate conditions.
Compound flood modeling of historical TCs | Probabilistic compound flood hazard assessment | Joint probability optimal sampling approach for efficient flood hazard assessment
The interaction between floods and the built environment
Continued coastal development exposes more people and assets to damaging floods, and increases the severity of floods due to the conversion of natural lands to impervious urban surfaces. At the local scale, we leverage distributed hydrologic and hydraulic models to understand the impact of urban development on flooding and quantify flood-induced cascading impacts to infrastructure systems. At the regional scale, we integrate projections of climatology and population growth with statistical/ML damage models to quantify spatial and temporal shifts in storm damages.
Combined land use and flood modeling for urban flood hazard assessment | Urban growth largely increased Hurricane Harvey’s flooding | Flood resilience of natural vs engineered rivers | Cascading flood impacts to the transportation system